NHL Over/Under Betting Guide: Totals Betting Explained
Master NHL over/under betting with expert strategies. Learn how to predict total goals, analyze scoring trends, and find value in NHL totals markets.
Over/under betting, also known as totals betting, is one of the most popular ways to bet on NHL games. Instead of picking a winner, you're betting on whether the total combined goals scored by both teams will be over or under a number set by the sportsbook. This guide will teach you how to analyze NHL totals, identify value, and develop winning strategies for over/under betting.
Understanding NHL Totals
In NHL over/under betting, the sportsbook sets a total number of goals (usually between 5.5 and 6.5) and you bet whether the combined score will be over or under that number. Both teams' goals count toward the total, including overtime and shootout goals. The .5 in the total ensures there's no push (tie) - the result is always clearly over or under.
Examples:
Toronto vs Tampa Bay - Total: 6.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
You can bet Over 6.5 goals at -110 odds (bet $110 to win $100) or Under 6.5 at -110. If the game ends 4-3, that's 7 total goals - Over wins. If it ends 3-2, that's 5 total goals - Under wins. Overtime and shootout goals count, so a 3-3 game going to OT means at least 7 goals (Over wins).
New Jersey vs Boston - Total: 5.5 (Over -125 / Under +105)
The odds can differ on each side. Over 5.5 at -125 means the book expects more scoring (you pay juice to bet Over). Under +105 offers better value if you think it'll be low-scoring. This line movement reflects betting action and the book's assessment of likely game flow.
Winning Strategies
1. Analyze Goaltending Matchups
Starting goalies have the biggest impact on totals. Elite goalies like Shesterkin or Hellebuyck can suppress scoring significantly. Always wait for confirmed starters before betting totals. A backup goalie starting can move the total by a full goal or more.
2. Consider Team Playing Styles
Some teams play high-tempo offensive hockey (Avalanche, Oilers) while others play defensive systems (Devils, Islanders). When two offensive teams meet, expect higher totals. When defensive teams clash, look at the under. Team style matters more than overall record.
3. Check Recent Scoring Trends
Look at teams' last 10 games for scoring patterns. Are they in a hot streak offensively or going through a goal drought? Short-term trends often predict near-term performance better than season averages. Also consider goals for and against separately.
4. Factor in Rest and Schedule
Teams on back-to-back games, especially road games, tend to play more defensively and score less. Well-rested teams meeting each other often produces high-scoring games. Check schedule spots when betting totals.
5. Watch for Overtime Probability
Close games going to overtime automatically add at least 1 goal (often more with 3-on-3 hockey). If you expect a tight game, consider the over. Conversely, blowouts rarely reach high totals despite the margin - empty net goals help but don't always push it over.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do overtime and shootout goals count for over/under bets?
Yes, all goals count including overtime and shootout goals. If a game is tied 2-2 after regulation and goes to OT, the game will end at least 3-2 (5 goals). Shootout goals also count, so a 2-2 game decided by shootout could be 3-2 or 2-3 for betting purposes.
What is the average NHL total?
Most NHL totals are set between 5.5 and 6.5 goals, with 6.0 being most common. League-wide scoring averages around 6 goals per game, but specific matchups can vary significantly based on teams, goalies, and other factors.
Should I bet over or under more often?
Neither exclusively. The key is finding value where you disagree with the book's total. Some bettors prefer unders because scoring variance is limited (games rarely finish 9-8) while high-scoring games are less predictable. However, both sides win equally if betting randomly.
How do injuries affect NHL totals?
Key player injuries, especially star forwards or starting goalies, can significantly impact totals. A team missing their top scorer might struggle offensively. A backup goalie starting typically increases the total. Monitor injury reports before betting totals.
Can you live bet NHL totals?
Yes, and it's very popular. Live totals adjust based on the current score and time remaining. If a game is 0-0 after one period, the live total will be much lower than the pre-game total. Live betting totals requires watching the game and reacting to flow and momentum.
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