NHL Moneyline Betting Explained: Complete Guide
Master NHL moneyline betting with our expert guide. Learn how to read odds, identify value, and develop winning strategies for betting on hockey moneylines.
Moneyline betting is the most straightforward way to bet on NHL games - you simply pick which team will win. Despite its simplicity, successful moneyline betting requires understanding how odds work, identifying value, and knowing when to back favorites versus underdogs. This guide will teach you everything you need to master NHL moneyline betting.
Understanding Moneyline Odds
In moneyline betting, you're wagering on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the margin of victory. Odds are expressed with positive (+) and negative (-) numbers. The favorite has negative odds showing how much you need to bet to win $100, while the underdog has positive odds showing how much you'll win on a $100 bet.
Examples:
Colorado Avalanche -180 vs Arizona Coyotes +160
Colorado is the favorite at -180, meaning you need to bet $180 to win $100 (total return $280). Arizona is the underdog at +160, meaning a $100 bet wins $160 (total return $260). The Avalanche are expected to win, but offer lower payout due to higher probability.
Even matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning -110 vs Florida Panthers -110
When odds are nearly even (close to -110 on both sides), sportsbooks see the game as a toss-up. You'd need to bet $110 to win $100 on either team. These games often present the best value opportunities if you have a strong opinion on the outcome.
Winning Strategies
1. Calculate Implied Probability
Convert odds to implied probability to assess value. For favorites, divide the odds by (odds + 100). For underdogs, divide 100 by (odds + 100). If your estimated win probability exceeds the implied probability, you've found value.
2. Identify Undervalued Underdogs
Public bettors often overvalue favorites, creating value on underdogs. Look for quality underdog teams with strong goaltending, good recent form, or favorable matchup situations. These can offer excellent risk-reward ratios.
3. Consider Rest Advantages
NHL teams playing on back-to-back nights (especially road games) are at a significant disadvantage. Target well-rested teams facing opponents on the second night of a back-to-back for value moneyline opportunities.
4. Track Closing Line Value
Compare the odds you got versus the closing line (odds right before game starts). Consistently beating the closing line indicates you're finding value and making sharp bets, which leads to long-term profitability.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if an NHL game goes to overtime or shootout?
Moneyline bets include overtime and shootouts. The winner of the game in any fashion wins the moneyline bet. There's no push or tie - one team will always win for moneyline purposes.
When should I bet favorites vs underdogs?
Bet favorites when the odds represent good value relative to their true win probability. Bet underdogs when you believe they have a better chance of winning than the odds suggest. Focus on value, not just picking favorites or underdogs blindly.
How much should I bet on moneyline favorites?
Since favorites require larger bets for smaller payouts, many bettors use flat unit sizing (betting the same amount regardless of odds) rather than trying to win the same amount. This prevents risking too much on heavy favorites.
Are NHL moneyline favorites profitable long-term?
Not automatically. While favorites win more often, you need to overcome the vig (sportsbook commission). Betting every favorite loses money over time. The key is selective betting - only backing favorites when the price offers value.
What's a good win rate for moneyline betting?
It depends on the average odds you're betting. For -110 odds, you need to win about 52.4% to break even. For heavier favorites, you need a higher win rate. Track your results and ensure your win rate exceeds the breakeven point for your average odds.
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